The thing that you know is going to work out for sure.
The thing that doesn't have a downside.
Just an upside.
That thing doesn't exist.
The sure thing doesn't exist.
Because all sure things are already taken.
Or people are fiercely competing for the few that are still left.
So instead of waiting for your turn at the sure thing, (which might never come) why not instead use that time to try the not so sure thing?
The thing that does have a much bigger downside.
But also a much bigger upside.
With a lot less competition...
Why not try that for a while?